A brand-new note from Irene Aldridge shows how market flows influence long-term betas

A new white paper by Irene Aldridge of AbleMarkets (abstract presented below) shows how institutional and aggressive HFT flows predict future betas and how portfolio managers can incorporate this information to generate profits. Please click here to download the full version of the paper.

Abstract

Beta is commonly used in portfolio management, hedging and other risk management, options trading and more. In this paper, we show that market-microstructure derived identification of institutional flows are highly predictive of future beta realizations computed out-of-sample over 5-, 10, 20- and even 60-days ahead. We present the results of the predictability analysis along with a sample use case: a successful market-neutral strategy utilizing the analysis.

We find that AbleMarkets institutional activity, both buy and sell, the difference in AbleMarkets Aggressive HFT activity and the security in-sample return are highly predictive of future beta realizations. Prior betas are not predictive of future betas in most cases. The sample risk-neutral portfolio built with AbleMarkets Institutional Activity index and AbleMarkets Aggressive HFT index generates over 50% per annum in all market conditions, including the COVID crash.