Who Is Causing the Trump Effect?

By Irene Aldridge

“The Trump effect” has captured news headlines. The unprecedented rise in the U.S. stock markets following the November 8, 2016, election has taken many investors by surprise. Some portfolio managers and commentators question how long it will last. Others proclaim it a bubble that has just hit a natural ceiling for stock prices. Still others call it a “suckers’ rally”, a stock rally with little fundamental information to back up the price movements. Even the legendary Carl Icahn himself proclaimed on December 10, 2016, that “The Trump rally in stocks may have gone too far” (http://www.businessinsider.com/carl-icahn-trump-rally-2016-12). Of course, the market has reached its all-time highs over and over since.

Many pose an interesting question: who is behind this rally? By inference, a suckers’ rally is driven by, well, suckers. Since institutional investing is considered to be sophisticated, the suckers in question are implicitly assumed to be retail investors, perhaps those from the backcountry, an often-portrayed anti-elite bastion of Trump voters.

An analysis of data, however, paints a different picture. AbleMarkets.com, a Big Data for Capital Markets Company, produces an index of Institutional activity for all stocks, commodity futures, foreign exchange and even fixed income. Institutions are typically considered to be large professional money managers, such as hedge funds, pension funds and endowments. Using Big Data techniques, AbleMarkets parses every limit order to extract institutional orders from raw exchange data. Such inferences are no easy task. Every institutional order to buy or sell a particular stock can be as big as several million dollars and creates what researchers call “a credible signal” to other market participants of the institution’s research and opinions. Even though all orders on the exchanges are anonymous, the sheer size of institutional orders screams “I believe in my opinion, and I back it up with a massive amount of money”, encouraging instantaneous followers and other nosy traders. To conceal their steps, institutions break down their orders into small bits following two common algorithms: Value-Weighted Average Price or VWAP, popular in equities, or Time-Weighted Average Price, common in other financial instruments. The resulting pieces or “slices” of orders are indistinguishable to the human eye. However, to a sophisticated Big Data algorithm, such as the one continuously processing data at AbleMarkets, the institutional orders stand out vividly out of the large pool of order data.

Institutional participation, as measured by AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index, comes in two sets: institutional order flow as a percentage of buyer-initiated volume, and a percentage of seller-initiated volume that is driven by institutions. Measured and delivered every 30 minutes intraday, the numbers can also be aggregated over a daily, weekly or monthly averages that are very descriptive of the market activity.

So what did the institutions do immediately before and after the 2016 election? Using AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index across the most commonly traded 3000 stocks, collectively known as the Russell 3000 index, we observe the following:

– For the one month immediately prior to the elections, institutional investors were mostly selling U.S. stocks

– Immediately after the elections, institutional investors reversed course and started buying stocks in greater numbers, supporting, if not causing, the suckers’ rally.

Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the point. The Figures show the histogram of the difference in average institutional participation between the buyer and the seller-initiated orders. If over the course of the month, average institutional participation in buyer-initiated volume exceeded that of seller-initiated volume by 3%, the stock would be added to the “3%” bucket on the x-axis.

AbleMarkets.com
Figure 1. Distribution of net institutional activity in Russell 3000 stocks (buy – sell) in the month prior to the election, as measured by AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index, 10/9/2016 – 11/8/2016.

AbleMarkets.com
Figure 2. Distribution of net institutional activity in Russell 3000 stocks (buy – sell) in the month following the election, as measured by AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index, 11/9/2016 – 12/8/2016.

As Figure 1 shows, for the month preceding the election, the most frequent number of buy-sell incidences (the highest vertical line) corresponded to stocks where the proportion of buyer-initiated institutional volume equal that of seller-initiated volume. Out of the entire Russell 3000 universe, there were 468 stocks where the proportion of institutional buying activity approximately matched that of institutional selling activity. In contrast, 2,265 stocks out of Russell 3000 had institutional selling activity dominating institutional buying activity prior to the election. Only 200-some stocks out of Russell 3000 index were predominantly bought by institutions within 1 month before the election date.

In the month following the election, the dynamic reversed considerably. As Figure 2 shows, in contrast to pre-election behavior, only 1,299 stocks were sold more than bought by institutions following the election. Another 1,121 stocks from the Russell 3000 were bought rather than sold by institutions from November 9, 2016, through December 8, 2016.

A more dramatic illustration of institutional activity in response to the election results is tracking the AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index on a day-by-day basis surrounding the election. Figures 3-5 show histograms of net institutional participation (buy – sell activity) in the Russell 3000 stocks on November 7-9, 2016. The Figures vividly show the institutional investors’ change of heart with respect to the market from heavily pessimistic on November 7, just one day before the elections, to neutral on the Election Day, to furiously optimistic on November 9, immediately post-election. Call them suckers, but the institutions appeared to know what they were doing when they prepared their funds for an unprecedented rally!

Irene Aldridge is Managing Director, Head of Research at AbleMarkets, a Big Data for Capital Markets company, specializing in real-time and near-real time Software-as-a-Service improving execution, portfolio allocation and risk management. She is a co-author of “Real-Time Risk: What Investors Should Know About Fintech, High-Frequency Trading and Flash Crashes” (Wiley, 2017, https://www.amazon.com/Real-Time-Risk-Investors-FinTech-High-Frequency/dp/1119318963), and an author of “High-Frequency Trading: A Practical Guide to Algorithmic Strategies and Trading Systems” (Wiley, 2nd edition, 2013, https://www.amazon.com/High-Frequency-Trading-Practical-Algorithmic-Strategies/dp/1118343506).

AbleMarkets.com
Figure 3. Distribution of net institutional activity in Russell 3000 stocks (buy – sell) on the day prior to the elections, as measured by AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index, 11/7/2016.

AbleMarkets.com
Figure 4. Distribution of net institutional activity in Russell 3000 stocks (buy – sell) on the Election Day, as measured by AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index, 11/8/2016.

AbleMarkets.com
Figure 5. Distribution of net institutional activity in Russell 3000 stocks (buy – sell) on the day following the election, as measured by AbleMarkets Institutional Activity Index, 11/9/2016.

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  247. 폰테크 불법 대부업체나 사기 혹은 악덕업체를 피해 안전하게 진행이 가능한 업체를 소개해 드리려 합니다.
    대부업체를 통해서 알게 되신 분들, 폰테크를 이용하고 싶지만 하는 방법을 잘 몰라서 이용을 못하시는 분들, 혹은 단순히 불안해서 못하시는 분들,
    폰테크를 진행하고는 싶지만 안전한 업체나 믿을만한 업체가 어디인지 몰라 못하시는 분들 등등 기타 이런저런 이유로 폰테크를 진행 하시지 못하시는 분들이 많으신데
    그러한 고민들은 오늘로서 끝이라는 희소식을 전해 드리겠습니다!!!
    바로 오늘 소개해드릴 업체인 ‘다이렉트 폰테크’때문입니다.

    다이렉트 폰테크에 대해 말을 해보자면 당연히 폰테크로 사업자등록증 정식으로 등록된 업체이며, 사전승낙서 또한 보유한 업체입니다.
    그냥 일반 업체라기엔 정상적으로 매장도 운영하고 있는 곳이라서 매우 믿을만 한 곳이구요 매장도 하나가 아닌 여러 지역에 다수의 매장과 협업을 하고 있는
    큰 통신망을 보유한 곳이라고 할 수 있습니다.
    이는 정말 큰 장점이고 강점이며 폰테크를 진행하는 고객의 입장에선 최상의 조건이라고 할 수 있습니다.
    왜냐하면 보통 폰테크를 진행하시는 분들은 가성비가 좋은
    즉, 기기값은 최대한 저렴하면서 매입가는 최대한 높은 기종의 선택이 용이하기 때문입니다.
    보통의 업체들은 그러한 기종들을 구할 수 없을 뿐더러 구하는 물량에도 분명 한계가 매우 클 것이기 때문입니다.
    하지만 다이렉트는 여러 매장의 통신망을 구축하여 가성비 좋은 폰의 물량확보가 용이하며
    폰테크 진행 추후 몇개월 후 해당 대리점에서 오는 민, 형사적 소송과 내용증명, 소장, 벌금 등에서 자유로울 수 있습니다.
    불법 업체를 통하여 불법 개통, 그리고 고객을 데리고 다니며 개통을 해오라고 하는 그런 말도안되는 주먹구구식 업체 말고
    안전하고 신속하게 일을 처리하고 문의부터 시작해서 상담 -> 진행 -> 입금 까지 당일에 모두 처리하는 다이렉트만의 놀라운 일처리 속도와 정확함으로
    고객 모두에게 만족을 드리는 모습에 감탄을 하게 되실 겁니다.

    실제로 다이렉트 폰테크에 대해 리뷰 또한 구글로 찾아봤는데요
    실로 많은 분들이 만족감을 표하시고 네이버플레이스 또한 매우 좋은 평가가 많았습니다.
    기타 카페 게시판의 후기나 홈페이지 인증리뷰 같은 경우에도 정말 평가가 훌륭했구요.
    무엇보다 재방문율이 타 업체에 비교 자체가 불가할 수준으로 높게 나오는것만 보더라도 얼마나 믿을 수 있을지 알 수 있는 부분입니다.

    다른것보다 폰테크라함은 안정성을 배제한다면 일반 사기와 별반 다를바가 없는 중대한 범죄라고 생각할 수 있습니다.
    그만큼 안정성이 정말 매우 엄청나게 엄청나고 굉장히 굉장하게 중요한 부분이구요,
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    사실상 어떠한 업계라도 일정한 가격 형성이 되어 있는데요
    예를들어 1금융과 2금융에 대출이라 치면 정해진 연이자가 있을 것이구요
    불법 대부업이나 일수, 개인돈 같이 비 정상적인 거래라면 당연히 연이자보다 말도 안되게 높은 금리가 있는 것이겠구요
    마트나 편의점에서 음료수나 과자등과 같은 물품을 구매한다 하더라도 약간의 편차는 있지만 그렇게 높은 차이는 없습니다.
    정육점도 마찬가지로 온국민의 사랑을 받는 삼겹살도 국내산 돼지 생삼겹살의 가격 역시 약간의 차이가 있을 뿐 거의 정해져 있구요
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    만일 가격표를 그렇게 해놓고 판다면 그건 국내산이 아닐 확률은.. 뭐 굳이 제가 언급하지 않아도 다들 아시겠죠..?? ㅎㅎ

    새로운 형태의 시장이 형성되어 이제 막 시작이 되고 있는 분야라면 가격차이가 천차만별일 수 있겠지만
    이처럼 진작에 기존 시장이 형성되어 자리잡혀 있는 시장의 가격이 어느정도 정해져 있는 분야라면
    일반적은 은행이나 불법이 아닌 합법적 대부업계 대출의 금리도, 시장 물품 가격도, 정육이나 기타 물품이 유통되는 가격도 다 시장가가 어느정도 정해지기 마련이고
    그 안에서 가격이 다른곳보다 정도차이가 심하게 저렴하거나 심하게 높다 라고 한다면 한번쯤 의구심을 가져봐야 할 것입니다.
    그렇다라면 폰테크 역시도 마찬가지일 것이구요.
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    반대로 너무 낮은 매입가 역시 피해야 하는 부분입니다.
    그런 점에서 미루어 보면 다이렉트 폰테크는 투명한 가격으로 방문 고객님들 역시 하나같이 거의 동일한 금액을 받아가셨는데요
    그러한 부분 또한 각종 입금받은 내역 인증이나 리뷰에서 알 수 있던 부분입니다.

    폰테크는 다른것보다 우선적으로
    사업자등록증, 사전승낙서 확인하셔야 하며, 그 해당 등록증과 승낙서에 명시가 되어있는 이름과 일치하는지를 꼭 확인하셔야 하며
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    일반 정상적인 매장이 아니라면 그런것에 대한 대비가 거의 전무하다 볼 수 있으니 번거롭더라도 너무 높은 매입가만 찾아서 가려 하지 마시고
    가격이 다소 약간의 차이가 있더라도 문제가 생기지 않는 곳에서 진행을 하시길 추천드립니다.

    안정성 비례 매입가가 높은 곳은 단연 지금 말씀드리는 ‘다이렉트 폰테크’가 최고라고 할 수 있겠습니다.
    그리고 폰테크 진행 자체도 방문, 비대면, 출장 모두 가능하며 그 선택권은 전부 이용객의 입장에서 선택이 가능한 부분입니다.
    또한 지역상관없이 거리 상관없이 출장과 비대면 모두 진행이 가능하다고 하시니까요 부산이라서 대구라서 목포라서 강원도라서 등등 타 지역이라고
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