Market Prices and Limit Order Dynamics: What’s Going on in Today’s Stock Markets?

Markets are bursting at their seams with financial data. Much of the data that researchers are now mining is called Level I, II, and III data; this data comprises information on orders, executions and cancellations across different price levels. Until recently, such data was scarce. Today, it is more accessible, but still little understood. The not-for-profit Big Data Finance 2015 conference taking place at NYU Courant on March 6, 2015, will present selected techniques and results of big data analytics applied to Finance.

This article briefly explores a data phenomenon. The relationship between returns and order placement and cancellations is examined and the following findings are discussed:

  • Limit orders and cancellations do not significantly move prices. Instead, changes in prices significantly affect new limit order placements and cancellations.
  • During the minute when prices go up (down), more limit buy (sell) orders are cancelled than placed
  • The minute after an up (down) move, more limit sell (buy) orders are cancelled than placed
  • No statistically-significant dynamics can be detected past these two minutes

First, a chicken and the egg question: does order placement and cancellation impact prices or do prices impact order placement and cancellations? My latest research shows that markets work both ways, but with slight caveats: market orders tend to drive prices, while prices tend to impact limit orders and their cancellations. By way of a quick refresher on order types, a market order is the order to buy or sell at the best price available at the time the order is placed. A limit order is the order to buy or sell at a specific price. The limit order is executed only when it becomes the best-priced order in the market.

At the minute-by-minute level, the arrival of limit orders or their cancellations do little to move the prices the following minute or beyond. However, price changes themselves do impact the relative changes in limit orders, yet in unexpected ways. Counter-intuitively, during minutes when the market price rises, limit buy orders tend to be cancelled and new limit sell orders tend to be placed. However, during the minute following a rise in market prices, new limit buy orders rush to the markets, while many limit sell orders are cancelled. During the minutes when the market price falls, limit sell orders are cancelled and new limit buy orders come in. Following minutes with a drop in the market price, new limit sell orders are placed and more limit buy orders are cancelled. No statistically-significant relationships can be detected before or after the change in market prices.

The dynamics on the buy and sell front are not symmetric, however. In the S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) every 1-minute 1 bps (0.01%) rise in the mid-quote price (average of best bid and best offer) is accompanied on average by net cancellations of 500 shares in limit buy orders (new limit buy order cancellations less new limit buy orders across all price levels) with 99.99% statistical confidence. Every 1-minute 1 bps drop in mid-quote price, however, is contemporaneous to net cancellations of just 26 shares in limit sell orders. No statistically-significant changes in net limit sell (buy) orders can be detected when prices rise (fall).

Following every 1-minute mid-quote price rise of 1 bps new buy limit orders exceed buy limit order cancellations by 150 shares with 97% significance over the following minute. A 1-minute drop in the mid-quote price of 1 bps induces a net addition of 20 more shares than new limit order arrivals in the following minute. No persistent relationships between net order additions, cancellations and mid-quote price movements can be detected beyond the two-minute range discussed above.

The limit order activity is persistent and sizeable on the bid (buy) side of the limit order book, and much smaller on the offer (sell) side. This suggests that most of the observed and recurrent activity at 1-minute intervals is generated mostly by long-only investors.

Furthermore, most of the observed activity is likely due to execution orders, broker or internal algo-driven, and here is why. As the price rises, the limit-order traders are competing to stay at the top of the queue, cancelling their old limit orders and placing new ones, closer to the latest market price. The observed 1-minute delay, however, suggests that much of the limit order action may potentially be driven by humans, and not lightning-speed machines, defying the common opinion of who places and then cancels the orders in today’s fast-paced markets.

Additional inferences are too numerous to mention in this article – come to the Big Data Finance Conference to learn more!

Irene Aldridge is Managing Director, Able Alpha Trading, LTD., and AbleMarkets.com, and author of High-Frequency Trading: A Practical Guide to Algorithmic Strategies and Trading Systems (2nd edition, Wiley, 2013).

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I got rid of them by doing the same thing that got them bombing but multiple times in-between steam cleaning all furniture and using bedbug poison under furniture and strategically around edges of rooms. Go over board or you won’t get rid of them. I’m pretty sure they lay dormant in hardwood like the Beatles and the lint ones in carpet clothes and furniture. I also washed all my clothes at laundry mat because of the epicly hot dryers that get over 180 degF. You are not crazy if you have seen these symptoms but it is a common mental disorder and is why I thought I was crazy after the first time and didn’t look it up till now. I have a bunch of different mites and I have noticed ed my local hardware store has sold out of bombs lol. Good luck it is war and in my case only a couple bite and one bites into my skin. Oh yea I almost forgot, not only do I have worms that fall out of my hair when I’m infested bad but you will find tubular clear almost like facial stubble in you clothes mostly socks if you have what I have. I suggest shaking out clothes and hair into empty bathtub and using a magnifying glass to identify which bugs you have. So far this time I have spent over $200 and they have slowed but I’m still getting severe biting and red marks in my underwear above and in my pubic hair in-between my three showers a day. After I get them under control I’m sanding and sealing my floor, that should give me atleast two to three years because its obvious the people who owned the house before me had the same wood floor bugs that kid larva and burrowed in only to emerge with holes and elongated holes that just look taky. One other thing if you see seads, they are not, if in doubt crush in-between thumb nail like I suggest doing fleas. This is crazy and I really think my whole neighborhood got hit because right after I noticed they all started throwing out furniture and bedding lol. FYI I have really Sandy soil and first time was last winter around Dec. Sec started last week and it was really dry for a while in NE Ohio but its obviously from multiple sources if not malicious. I hope this helps, buy a steam cleaner and not just bombs but raid fumigators use both in over kill. I used six raid fumigators and 4 raid bombs last time after steam cleaning and will do the same this weekend and my house is tiny basement upstairs and main floor three bedrooms. PS put allopen food spices and even coffee filters, especially your weed and anything you will consume in fridge or in car and let the fumigator sit over three hours as it suggest only three we want to kill them and the fumigators will not disperse until you disperse itby venting house. I won’t be contacted just hope this helps because its a nightmare especially when your high in iron wife doesn’t even get bit by fleas so I had to catch these things in a bag and show her under a microscope so she didn’t think I was crazy, hint hint. You will do it just take your time and remember after words clean up all poison on surfaces and not to go over board unless you want cancer. Serious use poison the kind that makes your nose burn. Also most normal mites will be killed by dawn dish detergent so I spray in-between with that and bleach solutions. Mine is almost gone and I’ve done it last winter trust me. And oh yea don’t tell blind DR.’s they will think you are crazy if they can’t see the anttena from the lint things(I don’t think bother any one and I think they are usually always their any was). We are always covered in parasites mostly beneficial as you will begin to realise once you shower three times a day and bleach everything you don’t want to poison as you will get weak and possibly very ill if you don’t take it easy. Again and I’m sorry for this long post I’ve been up for about three days cleaning hopefully for the final time but take it slow after the initial series of bombings and they will get worse before they realise they should die. If any one has scientific or medical proof or have all the same bugs I have, theirs more probably 17 species and their larva, let me know but I won’t promise I will remember to check because I’m a busy man especially after this out me behind, its expensive don’t be fooled the time if your self employed lol, I estimated a loss of around $5,000 and my sanity lol. If any better ways of killing these things I am interested, I was also thing predator insects like lady bugs and several other beneficial parasites that lay eggs inside of mites and make them bread their own colonies nightmare/doom. Their is hole whether you find a better one or not good luck, I’m done for reLs this time. Oh shoes buy new ones and burn old ones spray them and pets with flea spray, long awesome hair like mine lice shampoo. Now im done but this is good info. Post pictures and blog/vlog.

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