Is Current Volatility Unprecedented? The Answer Depends on How Volatility Is Measured

By Irene Aldridge

Present economic conditions leave much to be desired: Europe is trying to resolve its debt problems, and the U.S. has seen much better times in terms of employment rates and consumer confidence. Against this backdrop of economic calamities, the financial markets are experiencing high volatility, seesawing up and down, gaining and losing in excess of 3% on a given day. Whether the current volatility is without a precedent, however, is up for a debate and depends on how volatility is measured.

The most common way to assess volatility is via standard deviation, a square root of the average of squared deviations of market returns away from their mean. While the formula can be a tongue-twister, the standard deviation function comes standard with most software packages, like Excel. It’s easy to compute and is popular as a result. For the standard deviation metric to make sense statistically, it needs to be calculated on at least 30 consecutive market returns, which may not be the desired goal — past observations may not be representative of the latest market conditions.

An alternative way to measure volatility is to use intraday movements of the markets. One such measure computes the difference between the highest and the lowest market prices observed on a given day, and then divides (normalizes) the difference by the closing price on same day. The resulting number is a percentage of the price that the markets have moved on a given day, and is considered a valid and timely measure by many academics and practitioners alike.

Both metrics, the historical standard-deviation-based volatility and the intraday volatility, show similar trends: when one rises, the other does too, although possibly to a different degree. The standard deviation metric tends to be much smoother, while the intraday volatility measure can have much steeper changes from one day to the next.

2011-11-16-Aldridge_Vol_2011.jpg

As far as historical precedents are concerned, however, the two volatility metrics produce different outcomes. Figure 1 shows comparison of the two volatility measures on the data of the S&P 500 index dating back to 1962. According to the historical volatility measure, recent volatility is hitting the all-time high levels, even equaling or exceeding that surrounding the Black Monday of 1987. According to the intraday volatility measure, current volatility is nowhere near the levels observed during the October 19 crash of 1987, when the S&P 500 registered a 25% move between its daily high and the low. Furthermore, present intraday volatility levels are comparable to those observed in the late 1990s, early 1970s and even 1962.

While the methodology used to compute volatility is the choice of the analyst, one thing is certain: high volatility takes time to die down. As Figure 1 shows, the clusters of high volatility are cyclical in nature and last around 4-6 years at a time. As a result, the high volatility levels the markets have experienced since 2008 may extend even through 2012.

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    ยังมีอีกหลายโปรโมชั่นสำหรับ W88
    เดิมพันผ่านเว็บหลักบน คอมพิวเตอร์ หรือ โทรศัพท์
    เปิดบริการ 24 ช.มัธยมบริษัทโดยตรงสมัครสมาชิก ยูฟ่าเบท ลงทะเบียน
    ใหม่รับโบนัส 100%สมัครเป็นสมาชิก ยูฟ่าเบท กับเราดีอย่างไร พวกเราเป็น betufa
    เว็บไซต์ตรง ไม่ผ่านคนกลางหรือเอเยนต์ ไม่เป็นอันตรายน่าเชื่อถือ ในเวลานี้เว็บไซต์ของพวกเรา มีโปรโมชั่นดีๆที่ไม่ควรพลาด และไม่มีที่ใด กล้าแจกให้ท่านอย่างแน่แท้ เราขอชี้แนะให้สำหรับทุกคน หรือ คนไหนกันแน่ที่กำลังมองหาเว็บไซต์พนันออนไลน์ดีที่สุด ที่ติดอันดับ1 Google
    ของเมืองไทย สมัครสมาชิกใหม่ เปิดUserใหม่ ฝากคราวแรกไม่มีอย่างน้อย รวมทั้งยังได้ รับเครคิตฟรี700บาท เพียงติดต่อเข้ามา
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    เปิดให้บริการทุกๆวัน รวมทั้งยังมีกิจกรรมแจกของรางวัลใหญ่ 10
    รางวัลทุกสิ้นเดือน สุ่มให้ทั้งยังลูกค้าเก่า-ลูกค้าใหม่
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    เว็บคาสิโนออนไลน์ UFABETในทุกวันนี้ มีเว็บพนัน
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    บาคาร่า สลากกินแบ่ง มวย ไอโล สล็อต แข่งม้า รูเลต ยิงปลา ครบจบในที่โดดเดี่ยว
    แหล่งรวบร่วมเกมส์คาสิโนออนไลน์ที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในประเทศไทย ครอบครองใจนักพนัน หลงไหล รวมทั้งสร้างความปลอดภัย วางใจ
    ให้กับลูกค้าทุกคนทั้งยังเก่า-ใหม่ ได้มั่นใจทุกคราว สมัคร UFABET เปิดบริการ 1 วันจากการเปิดบริษัทมานานมากกว่า
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    ของเรานั้นได้รับความนิยมอย่างมากในแถบทวีปเอเชีย แล้วก็ยังเป็นที่ยอมรับสำหรับนักเสี่ยงดวงทั่วทั้งโลก ว่าเป็น เว็บไซต์พนันออนไลน์ ที่เยี่ยมที่สุด เป็นที่ชอบใจโดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งเมืองไทย ที่มีคนมาสมัครเข้าเล่นจำนวนมากมากกว่า 10000คน ต่อวัน ทำให้ผลของการตอบรับของทางเว็บดีเยี่ยมๆทำให้เปิดบริการได้ช้านานที่สุด เท่าที่เคยมีมา ไม่ใช่ว่าเปิดให้บริการเฉพะ การเดิมพัน สิ่งเดียว แต่ว่ายังเปิดให้รับดู หนังฟรี
    ผ่านเว็บไซต์ของทางเว็บไซต์ สำหรับสมาชิก
    UFABET เพียงแค่นั้น !!!ทำไมต้องเลือก UFA มีดีเช่นไร1.

    เป็นเว็บที่ปรับรูปแบบใหม่ให้เข้าใจง่ายที่สุด เปิดบริการมานานมากกว่า 10 ปี และก็มีการปรับแต่งเว็บอยู่เสมอเวลา
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    นำ คาสิโนออนไลน์ ชั้นหนึ่งของทวีปเอเชียเข้ามาให้บริการลูกค้าถึง 4 คาสิโนเลือกเล่นได้ตามที่ใจต้องการ ไม่ว่าจะเลือกเล่นแบบไหน ยังมีคืนค่าคอมมิชชั่นมากถึง 0.7% ตลอดการเดิมพันของลูกค้า ไม่จำเป็นต้องกลุ้มใจเรื่องการคดโกง
    ด้วยเหตุว่าวิดีโอที่รับดูถ่ายทอดสดจากต่างแดนโดยตรง3.
    ราคาบอลยอดเยี่ยม เท่าที่เคยมีมาให้ราคาบอลมากถึง 5 ตังค์ ราคาต่อรองก็ดีแล้วที่สุด ไม่ว่าจะเล่นได้มาก ถึงหลักล้าน ทางเว็บไซต์ก็ยินดีจ่าย ไม่เคยมีประวัติปิดเว็บหนีผู้ใดกัน เปิดให้บริการอย่างสุจริต เล่นได้เราจ่าย เล่นเสียมีเครดิตฟรีแจก

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