Changing Equity Landscape Influences Investing Strategies

By Irene Aldridge

The latest turmoil observed in the European and U.S. markets may be symptomatic of a broader problem: changing behavior in financial securities. Historically, prices of unrelated securities used to rise and fall independently of each other and without great influence from the broader markets. Recent studies show that when markets rise, individual stocks still behave differently: some rise and some fall. Yet, when today’s markets fall, most stocks tend to fall in unison, amplifying negative performance of individual equities. The shifting risk-return characteristics of financial markets may influence the outcomes of investing styles, and change the way people look at markets for years to come.

According to classic financial theories, fundamentals drive the markets. Stock investors, for example, examine corporate prospects, and then make their educated bets on corporations that are most likely to thrive given a range of factors. While higher risk leads to higher average returns, in classical finance intrinsic risk dominates the macroeconomic risk common to all securities in the markets. Since intrinsic risk of companies is very unique, few unrelated securities can comprise a solid investment portfolio with individual risk of each security offset and possibly cancelled by other securities in the pot.

Investing through picking unrelated stocks with strong fundamentals is alive and well, as the new book, Equity Valuation and Portfolio Management by F. Fabozzi and H. Markowitz (Wiley 2011) points out. (Full disclosure: I had the honor of contributing a chapter to the book.) Yet, fundamental investing is becoming increasingly risky in today’s markets. Fundamental investors tend to diversify less, investing proportionally larger fraction of their portfolios into fewer securities, and, as a result, may experience deeper downsides in sliding markets.

Quantitative investing tools can help fundamental investors in what’s now called a “quantamental” approach. Some of quantitative “screens” help identify a couple of hundred candidate securities, often a combination of buy and sell positions, which can collectively reduce the portfolio downside and help withstand aggregate market slides. While short on corporate idiosyncrasies and future strategy, quant screens examine and take into account interactions between security returns in different market conditions, and focus the investor’s attention on minimizing aggregate portfolio risks. Retaining strategy-specific aspects of analysis, quantamental hybrid strategies can help fundamental investors safeguard their positions through uncertain times.

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